Utilizing System Dynamics Models in Analyzing Macroeconomic Variables of Yemen

The purpose of the System Dynamics method is to study the relationship between structure and behavior in non-linear, dynamic systems. In such systems, the significance of various structural components to the behavior pattern exhibited, changes as the behavior unfolds. Changes in structural significance modify that behavior pattern which, in turn, feeds back to change the relative significance of structural components. We develop a macroeconomic model through which we can study the characteristics of the feedback between structure and behavior. This model is based on multiplier-accelerator model, and inventory – adjustment model. This work is an extension of the work by Nathan Forrester on the use of basic macroeconomic theory to stabilize policy analysis. The design of a System Dynamics model begins with a problem and a time frame that contribute to the problem. They are listed and their structural relationships sketched the factors with particular attention to characterizing them as levels (or stocks) and rates (or flows) that feed or drain them. Levels and rates must alternate in the model; no level can control another without an intervening rate or any rate influence another without an intervening level.System Dynamics, Macroeconomic Variable, Economic Analysis, Yemen

Islamic Banks Financing and Poverty Alleviation in Sudan

The continuous regressions in the per capita income of the Sudanese people have triggered many suggestions to ameliorate their productive capabilities. One of them was the facilitating in financing programs through official channels. However, there are many structural impediments that inhibit those programs. One of the financial programs was the Small or miniature financing in addition to the establishment to specialized Banks as the Family Bank. The current paper discusses issues of financing in Sudan as part of programs initiated to improve income per capita. Islamic and regular financing systems are analyzed in order to explain existing impediments. Then Family Bank systems and financing facilities are discussed. Results explained in this paper clear the facts that there are other macroeconomic impediments and distortions that have negative impacts on feasibility of conducting normalized productive activities. One of them is the accelerating inflation rates and foreign currencies exchange rates. That is in addition to the indigenous distortions of inflated taxation rates that render smaller capitals from gaining profits on small scale. The expected productive cycles and variables are not subjected to the rule of Ceteris Paribas where cost can change. That adds to the difficulties in gaining the financing per se which are represented in the required time, bureaucratic processes, required collateral and higher interest rates. Even in the Islamic financing, the methodologies applied do not differ from the traditional in interest rates. Both are subtracted from final productive outputs. The expected Zero Interest Rates expected from such small production/income improvement financing projects do not exist. The final results are manifested in lesser beneficiaries, less expected incomes with diminishing internal return rates.Sudan, Islamic Banking, Financing, Poverty, Economic Performance

Challenges of formal social security systems in Sudan

The present paper discusses issues of challenges of social security systems in Sudan. Following parameters advanced by ILO and UNCOSOC, those systems are analyzed. The conclusions focus on their applicability that faces axial difficulties mainly presented in the state of institutional interregnum facing the country. Moreover, it is important to revisit aspects of social cohesion that serves greater role in traditional social security in the Sudan.Sudan,institutional interregnum, Social Cohesion, Social Security

The economic and environmental factors of water in arid regions: Study of the rural water use in Northern Darfur Region, Sudan

We develop hypothetical policy scenarios in this part of the paper which are simulated using a product-by-industry economic-ecological model to investigate their impacts on water and other ecological commodities. Results are expected to contribute to the establishment of alternative policy options for water resources management and sustainable economic development in the area. The impact of economic development on the environment is now a global issue and cannot be ignored. However, the extent of these impacts at local and regional levels in less developed countries (LDCs) is not fully understood. Unlike the rich industrialized countries where development is large-scale and the impacts associated with immense consumption of fossil fuels are basically in the form of environmental pollution, development in the LDCs is rather at a small-scale and the nature of impacts is often in the form of severe resource depletion (World Bank, 1992; Lesser, et al., 1997). Therefore, the challenge of sustainable development in these poor countries is an urgent matter of concern (WRI, 1992). This concern can be investigated from two perspectives, economic development and environmental degradation.Arid, Regions, Water Scarcity, Sudan, Darfur, Input Output, Economics, Environmental Factors

Assessment of the Role of Agriculture in Sudan Economy

The calamities of Sudan expand on daily basis. The secession of Southern Sudan has deprived the country of 25% of it total area, 24% of population, over 80% of its oil income. Moreover, it has separated with 75% of it vegetation cover and 30% of potential arable land. In addition, Sudan stands to tolerate at least 25% of its water resources. Economic situation precarious with the Darfur rebellions, the inception of Southern Kordofan's region civil strive and the inflamed complaints in its Blue Nile region. That resulted besides deprivation of oil revenues and other potentials to increased cost of national security and expenditures on additional revenues to meet such funds for securing peace. Economic crisis no longer looms over the country, but has grasped it with continuous pressures from the international society with all the consequences of boycotts, deprivations of loans and financing. The only viable economic sector is agriculture, with industry demise due to heavy taxations, expensive inputs prices, devaluation of the Sudanese currency and increases in levels of foreign currencies exchange rates. The present study reviews and updates information on the agricultural sector, not only for possible revival and compensations of the lost oil revenues but also to ensure food security for the remaining population. However, it is concluded here that under the present conditions, the agricultural sector cannot fulfill the economic requirements of the country. More economic resources are needed besides changes in the conception and application of privatization policies.Sudan, Agricultural Policies, Economic Sectors, Performance, Efficiency

Banks' Reserves' Restrictions and Economic Performance in Sudan (2007-2009)

The paper analyzes the impacts of Islamic and conventional Banks reserves' restrictions in Sudan. Comprehensively, those restrictions are necessary for health banks, performance and the viability of the macroeconomic performance in any country. The selected period of the analysis (2007-2009) is vital to study impacts of the Global Financial Crisis on the Sudanese economy. The paper introduces available data on banks institutions, macroeconomic policies and the central Bank of Sudan considering its part on controlling money supply and demand besides drawing policies for banks behaviors. It is conceivable from my conclusions here that there are conflicts between conventional and Islamic banks in reserves restrictions that impede normalized bank rules and the Central Sudan Bank's limitations during feasible financial and economic crisis. Thus, the slow and ineffective responses to the Global Financial crisis, in fact the failure can be due to those conflicts between the two banking regimes. Compared with other Islamic banking institutions that complied to recommended responses to the crisis that Sudanese case reveals differently. The Islamic banks could not respond effectively due to the so imposed interest rates on the required monetary subsidy from the Sudan Central Bank. Moreover, the deprivation of the oil revenues to the latter limited its abilities to support both the conventional and Islamic banks of the country. The results were manifested in their limited ability to cater for the required financing to the real productive economic sectors of Sudan. The consequent crisis of the year 2011 is a direct result of that lamed ability to finance the production sectors and their collapse in contributing to the stricken Sudanese economy.Sudan, Reserves, Restrictions, Financing, Macroeconomic Performance

Introduction to the Macroeconomic Structure of Yemen

In countries where tools of economic control are immature and disabled due to totalitarian systems, macroeconomic analyses for aggregate quantities and relationships, such as total consumption, investment, and government expenditures represents a difficult task. The practice of aggregation distinguishes this field of microeconomics and has advantages but also creates problems, a brief survey of these problems is required now, although a deeper appreciation of these must await the critical attitudes that can only develop with more exposure to entire subject. One difficulty is the complex area known as the aggregation problem, the classifying of widely varying goods or activities into one general category, which is treated as a homogeneous variable. The political, social and military fate of nations depends greatly upon economic success, and no area of economics is today more vital to nation’s success than its macroeconomic performance. Countries like Japan which has grown rapidly by wining export markets for its products, enjoy enhanced political power and higher living standards. A country’s living standards depend crucially upon its macroeconomic policies.Yemen, Macroeconomics, Money Supply, Demand

Challenges of Formal Social Security Systems in Sudan

The present paper discusses issues of challenges of social security systems in Sudan Following parameters advanced by ILO and UNCOSOC those systems are analyzed The conclusions focus on their applicability that faces axial difficulties mainly presented in the state of institutional interregnum facing the country Moreover it is important to revisit aspects of social cohesion that serves greater role in traditional social security in the Suda

Sovereignty and Politics, Hegemony and Survival

Since the beginning of the year 2011, the political crisis of Sudan expands everyday. The inevitable secession of Southern Sudan amplifies with the chronic crisis of Abyei pocket between the north and the south. However, most analysts vocalize their astonishment at irrational official behavior as the de facto state of war that currently prevails in the country and call it pure stupidity. In this paper we analyze what is behind the regime structure and the conception of the Hakimya that makes their regime fortified from accepting rationality, resilience and sense of truth to respond for solutions and help of the international society.Hakimya, Institutional Void, Hegemony, Political Crisis

Measuring Poverty and Human Capital Development in Sudan

Catastrophes in Sudan are of many dimensions. Food security is a chronic and intrinsic problem in Sub Saharan Africa which is a fact recognized by the international society. Political instability, civil wars and finally recent secession of its Southern part is another fact which may be taken as a vivid example for other regions of that previously largest African country to be followed. The present paper introduces an analysis and assessment of measurements for human development indices in Sudan. It is empirically concluded that human welfare is invisible. The parameters are very low. Strategies are needed to provide for basic services to cater for needs of the people. Without them, increasing dis-satisfactions can lead to more violence and disintegration.Sudan, Human Development, Measurements, Poverty, Disintegration